Precarious pathways to the populist left? Precarity, moral economy, and the politics of social disintegration in Spain and Italy

Spain and Italy are two Southern European countries historically marked by segmented labour markets and welfare states, producing comparatively high levels of precarity. While compounded by successive crises, precarity is a structural and durable feature of these societies. Over the last two decades, both countries have witnessed profound political transformations, including the rise of left-wing and right-wing populist parties. Yet whether and how precarious workers have responded politically remains poorly understood. Against this background, this thesis asks: what is, if any, the politics of precarity in Spain and Italy? Bridging sociology, political science, and political economy, the thesis develops a theory of the politics of precarity as social disintegration. Precarity is conceptualised as the experience of falling short, materially and symbolically, of normative standards linking work, housing, and social citizenship. These standards are shared but internally stratified by class: different social locations entail specific expectations, and precarity acquires classing effects as it differentially blocks access to security and recognition. The gap between expectations and reality becomes the terrain of moral work: precarious workers draw on moral economies linking work to security (labourism) and effort to reward (meritocracy). The configuration of violated moral economy and direction of blame shapes how precarity is politically translated. Empirically, the thesis adopts a mixed-methods design. ESS data map the political alignments of precarious workers in Spain and Italy, documenting demobilisation and partial alignment toward left-wing populist parties: Podemos in Spain and the Movimento Cinque Stelle in Italy. Life-history interviews with precarious workers in both countries (~25 per country) explore the processes behind these patterns, identifying three ideal types: the declassed aspiring middle class, the declassed precarious working class, and the striving precarious working class, distinguished by social position, moral economy, and political orientation. A supply-side analysis examines the socio-economic discourse and policies of left-wing populist parties during their periods in government. The study contributes to debates on the political consequences of precarity, the socio-political development of Southern Europe, and the nature of left-wing populist projects. A central argument is that pathways to the populist left have emerged, in the plural, but they are themselves precarious: fragile, conditional, and far from guaranteed.