Wittgenstein, Probability and Supraclassical Logics

In his Tractatus, Wittgenstein proposed a method for calculating probability using truth tables, which served as inspiration for Carnap and Ramsey's work on probability. Despite this, Wittgenstein's idea was not widely considered in the literature. This method involves comparing two propositions, where the first is considered only in true instances, while the other is analyzed only when the first is true. This approach is not dissimilar from Makinson's supraclassical logic, despite the use of different methods. The aim of this work is to shed light on Wittgenstein's method, exploring its foundational aspects and demonstrating the relationship between Wittgenstein's probability and Makinson's supraclassical logic. By doing so, we argue that Wittgenstein anticipated some modern developments in logic, proposing one of the earliest systems capable of incorporating beliefs within a formal calculus. In the final section, we will discuss how Wittgenstein's approach resolves (or, better, dissolves) the Lottery Paradox, showing that within this framework, the paradox ceases to exist.