Building Robust Active Galactic Nuclei Mock Catalogs to Unveil Black Hole Evolution and for Survey Planning

The statistical distributions of active galactic nuclei (AGNs), i.e., accreting supermassive black holes (BHs), in mass, space, and time are controlled by a series of key properties, namely, the BH–galaxy scaling relations, Eddington ratio distributions, and fraction of active BH (duty cycle). Shedding light on these properties yields strong constraints on the AGN triggering mechanisms while providing a clear baseline to create useful mock catalogs for the planning of large galaxy surveys. Here we delineate a robust methodology to create mock AGN catalogs built on top of large N-body dark matter simulations via state-of-the-art semiempirical models. We show that by using as independent tests the AGN clustering at fixed X-ray luminosity, galaxy stellar mass, and BH mass, along with the fraction of AGNs in groups and clusters, it is possible to significantly narrow down the choice in the relation between BH mass and host galaxy stellar mass, the duty cycle, and the average Eddington ratio distribution, delivering well-suited constraints to guide cosmological models for the coevolution of BHs and galaxies. Avoiding such a step-by-step methodology inevitably leads to strong degeneracies in the final mock catalogs, severely limiting their usefulness in understanding AGN evolution and in survey planning and testing.